Long-time pollster John McLaughlin joined host Michael Patrick Leahy on Wednesday’s episode of The Tennessee Star Report for a fascinating discussion of what the national and state polling means, which polls to watch, and what to watch for as more polling comes out.
TRANSCRIPT
Michael Patrick Leahy:
7:06 a.m.; broadcasting live from our studios on Music Row in Nashville, Tennessee.
We are joined on the Newsmaker Line right now by the very best pollster in America, my good friend, John McLaughlin – who for many years has polled for Donald J. Trump.
Good morning, John.
John McLaughlin: Good morning.
That’s a lot of pressure – though I think “The Best Pollster in America” is kind of like an oxymoron these days.
Michael Patrick Leahy: You are, I have declared, the best pollster in America, John.
So therefore, you are, right?
John McLaughlin: I’m on your show, so I am.
Michael Patrick Leahy: Well, look, lots of interesting news going on here at a national level.
We see, apparently, every time the Department of Justice or a state left-wing district attorney indicts Donald Trump, his poll numbers go up.
I’m looking at the Morning Consult poll today.
Just came out: Trump 61; DeSantis 13; Haley 7; Ramaswamy 7; Pence 5; Christie 3; Scott 1; Burgum 1.
Trump by 48 points.
Morning Consult has Trump and Biden tied, but I’ve seen Trump up 9 in the Washington Post poll; and Trump up 3 in another.
The polls say it’s looking good for Donald J. Trump.
John McLaughlin: Yeah, I wish the election was tomorrow – and probably so do a lot of Americans, because when you refer to that Morning Consult poll as a tie? It’s a poll of 5,000 registered voters, not likely voters.
And the Trump voters are the most intense to come out. So we’re leading in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls.
We never saw this, by the way, in 2020 or 2016. We were, we were never ahead in the national popular vote, and we just got a national poll back last Wednesday of our own of 1,000 likely voters – people who tell us that they’re going to vote, that’s modeled after the 2020 turnout that has 46 percent telling us they voted for Biden in 2020 and only 42 percent saying they voted for Trump.
And Trump is winning that poll, 47 to 43 over Joe Biden, which means there’s a 2020 Biden voter, who’s now a 2024 Trump voter, and Trump is winning in the national popular vote.
We got a poll yesterday for Newt Gingrich that we do work for, and Joe Biden has a 59 percent job disapproval.
I mean, the voters in America are not stupid, they’re smart, and they’re saying, ‘Trump was a good president. I was paying 2 a gallon for gas. I could go to the supermarket and for a family of four. You know, my food would cost us for that trip, maybe $200, $300. Now it’s $400, $500.’
And they’re being told by Bidenomics is good. They don’t believe it. And this poll, when we asked Bidenomics, they had a 24 favorable, 47 unfavorable among all voters – and that’s what Biden’s basing his campaign on.
And they’re telling us the economy is getting worse, not better, 67 to 25.
In our poll, they’re saying that the country’s on the wrong track, 69 percent.
So here’s Joe Biden indicting his leading political opponent four times in five months.
And now they’re trying to ruin him financially in New York with the Democrat supporter of Joe Biden, Letitia James, trying to basically take away his whole business, his multi-billion dollar empire. She’s trying to gut it. And it looks political to the vast majority of Americans.
So he’s going up in the polls because the voters are looking at this, and they’re saying, ‘Why are these other Republicans bickering instead of supporting him?’ I mean, if you can indict your leading political opponent, there’s no reason for the Republican Party to exist.
The RNC has not has not come to bat for hit; the Republican National Committee – they haven’t put a lawyer in any of these courtrooms trying to defend Donald Trump. I mean, what is the point of having an opposition party?
If your leading candidate can go to jail and, and mark my words, they want to put Donald Trump in jail.
Michael Patrick Leahy: Oh, they want to, they want to bankrupt him and they want to put him in jail.
John McLaughlin: Right. And it’s all because he’s ahead of Joe Biden in the polls. And when I met with President Trump, I said, ‘Oh, your poll numbers were up again. They’re going to find a way to indict you a fifth time.’
And you know from probably your reporters in Arizona, they’ve opened up an investigation on the election. But they frame it when you ask for a recount, it’s now an insurrection. It’s ridiculous, but they have opened up another investigation and the governor out there is a Soros candidate.
So I mean, they will stop at nothing to try to stop Donald Trump from winning and he’s winning – and the vast majority of American voters are for him. And like I said, we were never ahead in the national popular vote.
You can go to our website, mclaughlinonline.com. Trump went ahead the month after Joe Biden surrendered Afghanistan.
And we’ve been heading in the national popular vote in our monthly polls ever since then.
Michael Patrick Leahy: And John, of course, the president is not elected by a national popular vote. The president is elected by the electoral college, meaning there are 50 – well, 51 if you had District of Columbia – separate races.
And in those races, it’s looking, I think, even better for Donald Trump in a straight Trump v. Biden matchup. Do I have that right?
John McLaughlin: Yes, because it would be an electoral landslide because when you look at it, due to the census, there’s a little more electoral vote our way.
But if you look at the toss-up states from last time and you say, ‘This means he’s going to win Wisconsin, Michigan’ – that’s why I went to Detroit last week to stand up for union workers, going to lose their jobs in China.
Arizona has 11 electoral votes.
Nevada 6 – we could win that. That was close last time.
We’ll win Georgia because they changed the election law to require a voter ID, not just for in-person, but also for absentee – there’re 16 electoral votes there.
We got a shot at Pennsylvania in spite of their trying to manipulate the mail-in votes. There’s 19 electoral votes there.
And Ohio has 7 – Ohio, we’re gonna win.
But there’s 77 electoral votes that would switch.
So we would go from last time, 232 electoral votes – we’d be at 304 already.
And then if we could win some states like Nevada pardon me – Nevada six, I’ve got that included.
You got another 4 in New Hampshire, 10 in Colorado.
Possibly put Virginia back in play, but they’ll just go on Republican – there’s 13 electoral votes there.
And there’s always a possibility of Oregon at 8.
Michael Patrick Leahy: So let’s throw in, can I throw in a curveball for you? Well, this is what’s going to happen in each state.
Cornel West, I think, is he going to be running on the Green Party in every state?
John McLaughlin: Right.
Michael Patrick Leahy: Okay, so that takes away from Biden, right?
John McLaughlin: Right.
Michael Patrick Leahy: How about Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.? Big announcement coming up next week.
Apparently, most people think he’s going to leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent. Will he qualify in all 50 states? And if he does, what does that mean? Does he take more away from Biden or Trump?
John McLaughlin: Well, first of all, on Cornel West, we had in the national poll we put out last week, Trump is winning if he’s, if Cornel West is in there, 43 to 38 over Biden with 6 for West. And, so we, so we expand our lead by a point.
And if Joe Manchin’s in it, Joe Manchin gets 6 percent, Trump still wins, 40 to 36, with Manchin getting 6, and Cornel West getting 4.
Now, we didn’t test Kennedy because at the time we went in the field, he hadn’t announced he was going to run as an independent. But we did test him in a primary.
He was only getting 15 percent to Biden’s 56, but the 15 percent voting for Kennedy went two to one for Biden. So, I mean, Kennedy, they’ve ostracized the guy that won’t, you know, ABC, CNN, NBC, CBS, they won’t give him any coverage. So he can’t take off even though voters in Iowa and New Hampshire ticked about Biden taking away their delegates in the nomination process.
But Kennedy, if he can get on the ballot, he’s good. You know, some of the Left wing press thinks because he has anti-vax positions that he’s this populist. He may be in some regard, but he’s also a very Green New Deal lawyer who is anti-fracking anti-fossil fuels, and he’s got some pretty liberal positions that really haven’t gotten attention, but if he runs those votes would come out of Biden, by and large.
You know, what the crazy part is? Biden is so corrupt and so mean-spirited, not just as he going after Donald Trump, but when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., whose uncle and father was assassinated – when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. asked for Secret Service protection? They won’t give it to them. Biden won’t give them Secret Service protection.
Michael Patrick Leahy: Yeah, that is very, very mean-spirited.
John McLaughlin, thanks so much for joining us today.
We’ll have you back in about a month or so and see if it’s still looking good for Donald J. Trump.
John, thanks for joining us today.
John McLaughlin: Thank you.
Michael Patrick Leahy: And we’ll be back with more, after this.
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Photo “John McLaughlin” by John McLaughlin.
